Part 2: Projecting Winter Outage Risk Through 2030
As Texas approaches the five-year anniversary of Winter Storm Uri, the ERCOT grid faces growing vulnerability to winter power outages. This analysis projects that by 2030, the same type of storm that would cause approximately 12 hours of outages today could result in nearly 24 hours of blackouts affecting more than 25% of total demand, with a supply gap reaching 25 GW at peak.
The core problem is a mismatch between the types of generation being added and what the grid needs for winter reliability. Since 2021, ERCOT has added 31 GW of solar and 17 GW of battery storage but only 3 GW of natural gas generation. By 2030, approximately 60 GW of new solar, batteries, and wind will be added at a cost exceeding $60 billion, yet these resources will contribute only about 9 GW of firm power during peak winter hours. Meanwhile, peak demand is projected to surge from 80 GW today to 110 GW by 2030, driving the winter reserve margin to -5.6%.
Without significant market design changes to redirect investment toward reliable capacity, or expanded demand flexibility from new data centers, Texas faces mounting winter reliability risks as demand growth continues to outpace additions of firm generating capacity. The analysis concludes that while market reforms are essential, they take time to implement, making flexible demand from large consumers a more immediate solution.