Overview: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis recently released the second estimate of real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) in Q2:2020. The latest figures show GDP contracted by 5% (annualized) in Q1:2020 and 31.7% in Q2:2020 for a total GDP loss of $2 trillion this year. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow running estimate of real GDP indicates it could increase by 28.9% in Q3:2020 (as of August 28) depending on COVID-19 responses. The U.S. private economy has lost $2 trillion this year from COVID-19 and resulting lockdowns by state and local governments, but it will keep improving as states reopen.
Details: The U.S. economic expansion ended in February 2020 due to COVID-19 responses but appears to be expanding again in the third quarter with partial reopenings. The following data provide a comparison of real GDP and real private GDP (excluding the government sector) over time: 1) Q2:2009 for dated trough of the last recession in June, 2) Q1:2017 for start of Trump administration, 3) Q4:2019 for dated peak of the last expansion, 4) Q1:2020 for dated start of the recession in February, 5) Q2:2020 for latest reported data.