The 2024 elections unfolded as the most violent in the history of modern Mexico. In a May report, Integralia Consultores had counted 560 acts of political violence during the 2024 election cycle—87% more than the 2021 midterm election cycle. At least 30 candidates or potential candidates—mostly on the municipal level—were murdered.

During the 2024 campaign, Claudia Sheinbaum questioned the DEA’s annual National Drug Threat Assessment, saying, “This is not the first time that the DEA produces a baseless report.”

Despite initial misgivings, AMLO appeared to have found common ground with Biden, namely on their mutual displeasure with Texas’s border protection measures. He wrote a letter to Biden, “You’re the first president in decades who hasn’t sought publicity building walls on our border.”

Sheinbaum promoted better policing in Mexico City and has spoken of doing the same on the national level. However, she will confront a powerful military, which has assumed increased security tasks in recent years—along with other civilian tasks such as operating railways and airports.

The new president assumes office at a time of promise for Mexico. Nearshoring, in which companies relocate supply chains and operations closer to the U.S. market for commercial and geopolitical reasons, appears likely to favor Mexico.

Sheinbaum takes the oath of office October 1, but the person who will ultimately wield power remains a mystery to most Mexicans.

Key points:

  • Claudia Sheinbaum overwhelmingly won Mexico’s June 2 presidential election with promises to continue the populist project of outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO).
  • The ruling MORENA party and its allies are projected to come close to winning supermajorities in congress, meaning constitutional amendments will likely not need opposition support.
  • Sheinbaum has outlined few policy specifics, suggesting continuity with AMLO’s agenda of expanded social programs, state-intervention in the economy and a less confrontational approach to public security.
  • The president-elect has promised close U.S. relations with a focus on emphasis on trade, nearshoring and defending Mexicans abroad. It remains to be seen if she will pursue closer security cooperation with the United States.